The hysteria surrounding the Madeleine Mcann case is growing all the time. The latest twist is that the couple are to have there own independent DNA test done to compare with the results in the possession of the Portuguese police (Svd, Dn). Sir Alec Jeffreys, the man who invented DNA fingerprinting has even offered his help.
We don't know the evidence that the police in Portugal have collected, but the 'smoking gun' appears to be the DNA found in the hire car. But as Sir Alec says, the same DNA match could be found in at least one family member. Since the car was used by Madeleine's parents and siblings, it will be almost impossible to prove that the blood belongs to Madeleine and not to another family member.
Also, let’s say for one second that they are guilty and found Madeleine dead in the flat and decided that rather than risk splitting up the family if they came clean, they decided to hide the body and invent the abduction story. Is it really likely that they could have put on such a convincing show to the world and never once broken down under the weight of all that guilt? They met the Pope for God's sake and being Catholics, lying to the Pope is a pretty big no-no. Also should we then believe that in the shadow of all this media attention, they then moved the body, using the hired car some 30 days later?
Occam's Razor states that 'All things being equal, the simplest solution tends to be the right one'. Unfortunately in this case, the simplest solution is that Madeleine was taken by persons unknown as is now quite probably dead. Going after the parents on the basic of very unsafe evidence will not help uncover the truth.
A sign of life
1 year ago
3 comments:
It shall not impossible at all to say if the blood comes from Madeleine or from another family member. Especially since we have all the family members in life.
Ur speculation is also absolutely meaningless. The bets thing in this story is that it's a story which has implications on moral and human life.
I also don't like your conclusion on science and Occam's razor. Proof is everything here, and then -- but only after good proof -- we can use e.g. the Occam's razor.
Occam's razor must also explain the hair (not only DNA but hair, of course, with Madelein's DNA) found in the rent car used by parents after the girl disappered, and this means that the dead Madeleine was put in that car. Possibly the mother did this, because there is particles from the dead girl on her clothes. Also many other facts that can't be set aside are there. Among other facts, some facts from the hotel personal (which btw, although not in itself proving anything, was suspicious from the start).
The Occam's razor is not to be easy on facts. The man made global warming is sometimes defended with the Occam's razo the way you do here, excluding facts against that hypothesis and hype.
The times we live in is very much narratives. There is a catastrophe with 3 degree warmer world but there was that warm 6000 and 120000 years ago and the best most non-catastrophic times ever then. Or you must be nice to islam and you must be critical to christianity. Or that Bush is not a good fellow (he might even be a dictator (SIC!)). And many more stupid lies surrounds us.
When I said that it was not possible to say definitely that any DNA came from Madeleine or from another family member I was quoting a statement made by Sir Alec Jeffreys, the man who invented DNA fingerprinting, whom I guess knows what he is talking about. The statement was made as part of an interview with the BBC here
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6992372.stm
If the DNA evidence is not reliable enough to assign guilt then what else is there to secure a conviction against the McCann's but circumstantial evidence. As you say, the case needs good proof.
The family’s clothes could have been contained with Madeleine’s hair which could then have been brushed off inside the car some weeks later. This seams a more simple explanation than that it got there when the couple were transporting their daughter's corpse to some place as yet unknown.
If the car was hired 30 days after the she went missing where had the body been all that time? What state would a body be in after 30days of decomposition?
Occam's Razor is not a proof, rather a principal by which one can select the most likely theory based on the evidence available. I still maintain that in this case there is no real conclusive proof that the parents were involved.
Wow, Swenglishman in Sweden... I suppose I can call myself a Portuswenglish in Germany. Portuguese long term Swedish resident after living in UK and US and now resident in Germany (but still with apt in Stockholm).
I have a real hard time judging the McCanns. I mean, I can't believe they are criminals. Actually, I would bet they aren't.
In my view the only odd thing they ever did was to emotionally break down so seldom in public. But maybe I'm biased by having grown up in Portugal.
Still this doesn't warrant an extrapolation to homicide, only to problems with dealing with own emotions. A pretty common problem at that - not even a terribly deranged personality.
I think it's awful that the world rather sees them as guilty than innocent. It goes to show that not much has changed since a lot of people looked upon hangings as entertainment.
I feel terribly sorry for them, for their smaller kids, and also for the poor missing girl, who is logically dead - regardless of the latest developments - but then again, she may not. Unlikelihood does happen - that's why it's not called "impossible".
I feel like finding a way to tip them about precious places in Sweden where to go for a respite from the world - places like Abisko or Fårö - where even if they are recognized, they won't be bothered. Because this is the (nice) way Swedish people treat celebs - allowing them to be just people.
Honestly, I would aquit these people even if they are guilty. I know this is a terrible thing to say - because it helps supporting their guilt. Which I don't believe in - but that's a matter of faith.
The family I have seen will live in hell forever, regardless. The difference if they took any part on whatever happened to their missing daughter is:
their hell will be much worse than if someone else did it.
These are not people without a conscience. They are simply mere moral mortals with normal hangups.
I kept hoping for Madeleine, and now I hope for her parents, too. They are being witch-hunted by the modern crowd's taste for sensation and self-"agrandisement".
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